Moneyfacts data shows that average pricing across two-, five- and 10‑year fixes has risen over the past year

Borrowers are again facing uncertainty over mortgage costs, with lenders adjusting fixed rates in response to shifting expectations for the Bank of England (BoE) base rate and swap markets, according to analysis from Moneyfactscompare.co.uk.

Over the past fortnight, major high street lenders including Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Bank, NatWest and Santander have reduced selected fixed-rate products, aligning pricing with recent swap rate movements. Whether these reductions continue is unclear, with market expectations still pointing to interest rates remaining higher for longer.

Moneyfacts data shows that average pricing across two-, five- and 10‑year fixes has risen over the past year. At the start of April, the typical 10‑year fixed rate moved above 6% for the first time since July 2024. The average two‑year fix reached its highest level since July 2024, while the five‑year equivalent jumped to a high last seen in November 2023.

Although the Bank of England cut the base rate to 3.75% in December 2025, the average standard variable rate (SVR) has been slower to adjust. Since the cut, the average SVR has dropped by 0.14 percentage points, from 7.27% to 7.13%. Over the past year, the base rate has declined by 0.75 percentage points, but SVRs have dropped by only 0.47 percentage points.

Borrowers have been left in limbo as it is difficult to know whether they should rush to lock into a fixed deal or wait and see if lenders make more sizeable cuts. said Rachel Springall, finance expert at Moneyfactscompare.co.uk.

Unfortunately, the outlook on interest rates remains uncertain, so mortgage holders coming off a cheap fixed rate will have to cover higher repayments this year, which will be incredibly frustrating. It is still worth moving off an expensive revert rate, as borrowers could save almost £2,500 a year moving onto a fixed rate deal, she said.

Moneyfacts’ analysis, based on a £250,000 repayment mortgage over 25 years, shows that a borrower on an SVR of 7.13% would pay around £1,787 per month. On a two‑year fixed rate at 5.81%, the monthly payment falls to around £1,581, a difference of £206, or £2,472 over a year.

The Bank of England refuses to rush any decisions, and with fears of a recession already creeping in, it looks like stagflation has thrown out any plans for cuts this year, Springall said. Economists expect the BoE base rate to hold in the short-term, and it’s looking increasingly unlikely we will see a cut until 2027.

She said: However, borrowers will hope that the mortgage mayhem experienced over recent weeks will calm, but repricing could go both ways amid swap rate moves. Mortgage rate hikes have been driven by the conflict in the Middle East, where the disruption of supply chains has created muddied waters for the future path of inflation and interest rate setting.