A study identified 11 metropolitan areas most vulnerable to price drops of 20% or more from their recent peaks

Homebuyers in some of the fastest-growing US housing markets could see property prices tumble this year, according to a report released last week by NewHomeSource.

The study identified 11 metropolitan areas most vulnerable to price drops of 20% or more from their recent peaks. Analysts pointed to a combination of growing housing supply, declining affordability, and rising homeowner insurance costs as key factors driving the risk.

Everyone knows real estate is local, and some markets are riskier than others, NewHomeSource noted in the report, which examined active listings, employment growth, net migration, community development, and price appreciation.

The list includes several high-profile markets: Austin, Boise, Denver, Jacksonville, Lakeland, Miami, Myrtle Beach, Orlando, Phoenix, Sarasota, and Tampa.

In Austin, researchers noted an overheated market that has seen a surge in listings since 2019, while Denver recorded growth in listings both year-over-year and over the longer term. Miami and Tampa showed the sharpest affordability pressures, with Miami posting the highest insurance burden nationally and Tampa experiencing the steepest existing home price appreciation.

Florida markets stood out for the dual strain of insurance and affordability. Jacksonville was flagged for its heavy investor presence and insurance costs, Lakeland for its rapid listings growth, and Sarasota for supply risks compounded by insurance pressure. Myrtle Beach, meanwhile, has seen decelerating migration trends weaken demand.

Markets in the US West are also showing warning signs. Boise’s rapid community expansion has eroded new home affordability, while Phoenix has seen slowing migration alongside rising prices and weakening affordability.

While conditions vary, most of the markets identified share common indicators: a build-up of unsold housing inventory, weakening affordability for new buyers, and rising insurance burdens. Combined, these pressures make them more susceptible to what NewHomeSource called “deep corrections” in 2025.